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The least credible of the 4 major award shows comes back this Sunday, so before we once again complain about how the Grammys aim for far more mainstream works unlike its Oscar and Emmy counterparts, we’ve pieced together a list of predictions for who’ll probably win, but who deserves to win as well.

Album Of The Year

Should Win: Golden Hour– Kacey Musgraves or Dirty Computer– Janelle Monáe

Will Win: Dirty Computer– Janelle Monáe

Drake and Post Malone are clearly more mainstream here, but one of the culprits of Grammys past has been the “genre-splitting” phenomenon. Compared to other award shows, voters here tend to lean toward a specific genre more than they would in voting for movies or television. In instances where multiple artists of the same genre compete for non-genrefied awards (basically all the biggest prizes of the night), the votes tend to get divvied up between them, resulting in all parties getting screwed. This year, hip-hop-leaning voters will choose from Cardi B, Post Malone, Drake, and the rap/R&B hybrid Black Panther album. Therefore, Musgraves and Monáe have a clear advantage this time around.

That’s not to mention the acclaim of their two LPs. Both were able to land on many year-end best lists in 2018, including SCAD Radio’s. Musgraves’ fantastic Golden Hour made a heavy impact outside of the country music realm and became a critical darling with its beautiful acoustics and pleasing songwriting. Dirty Computer doubled as an anthemic pride album and a sci-fi epic of a short film. Both are equally deserving of the night’s final prize, but expect Monáe to come out on top just because she’s a little more popular than the often-overshadowed country genre.

Record Of The Year

Should Win: “This is America”- Childish Gambino

Will Win: “God’s Plan”- Drake

This one almost always goes to something that got tons of radio play, and Drake’s “God’s Plan” takes the cake for most FM cranks. It’s a tough call, because “All the Stars”, “rockstar”, and “Shallow” have also gotten a fair amount of air time, but the lead single to Scorpion will land Drake his first Record of the Year victory. This is Gambino’s 2nd time in the category (was up last year for “Redbone”), and “This is America” certainly made waves with its politically fueled music video. He’ll be a sure bet to score Best Music Video, but probably not here.

Song Of The Year

Should Win: “This is America”- Childish Gambino

Will Win: “Shallow”- Lady Gaga & Bradley Cooper

For those that don’t know, Song of the Year focuses solely on the lyrical composition of the music, whereas the former centers on how the songs sound. With that being said, expect the Star is Born duo to nab the first Song of the Year from a movie since Titanic’s “My Heart Will Go On”. The musical-drama grossed more than $400 million worldwide, and its use in the film was more relevant than end credit nominee “All the Stars” from Black Panther. It’s got all the emotion and epicness of Celine Dion’s hit, but it’ll likely come above “This is America” due to the Grammys’ sordid history with the hip-hop genre.

Best New Artist

Should Win: Dua Lipa

Will Win: Dua Lipa

Jorja Smith had a respectable debut last year and is undeniably a talented R&B singer, but Dua Lipa’s hits like “New Rules” and “IDGAF” top all the other nominees. No one else here is as big of a name as the British pop star, either, a huge factor in the Grammys these days. Perhaps the only competition she has is the divisive Led Zeppelin ripoff/tribute (depending on your perspective) band Greta Van Fleet, whose love ‘em or hate ‘em style caught the attention of many voters. It’s also worth noting H.E.R. is in this field, as well as Album of the Year, but it isn’t always a shoo-in that she’ll score the Best New Artist trophy.

The remainder of the field is extensive, but there are some noteworthy possibilities. Experimental EDM artist Sophie could become the first-ever transgender Grammy winner with her album Oil of Every Pearl’s Un-Insides. Black Panther could make history yet again if its album scores AotY, with the film’s Best Picture bout waiting in the wings at the upcoming Oscars. There’s never been a movie that scored the top Academy Award and whose album garnered the top Grammy trophy as well. The nominations do raise a few eyebrows here and there (Weezer’s Pacific Daydream? Seriously?). This is, after all, the Grammys. Alicia Keys hosts the show on Sunday.